Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jay Bogan
Justin Governale
78%
22%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Jay Bogan
Justin Governale
39
Sig strikes landed
44
96
Sig strikes attempted
97
52
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jay Bogan
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Justin Governale
"The Therapist"
0-0
Career record