Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jonathan Santa Maria
Steve Ramirez
70%
30%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Jonathan Santa Maria
Steve Ramirez
47
Sig strikes landed
43
100
Sig strikes attempted
103
62
Total strikes landed
57
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
42s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jonathan Santa Maria
4-4
Career record
Height
69"
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
Steve Ramirez
0-0
Career record
Height
67"