Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkov
Tony Johnson
99%
1%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 80"
—
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Volkov: 71 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 30 sig / 2 TD
Alexander Volkov
Tony Johnson
44
Sig strikes landed
37
104
Sig strikes attempted
87
59
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
202s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
0-0
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Tony Johnson
0-0
Career record
Height
73"