Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Marcin Held
Alexander Sarnavskiy
56%
44%
Why
23
Age
Δ 3y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Held: 23 sig / 2 TD ·
Sarnavskiy: 16 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Held
Alexander Sarnavskiy
40
Sig strikes landed
41
107
Sig strikes attempted
109
55
Total strikes landed
58
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marcin Held
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Alexander Sarnavskiy
"Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
26