Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cleber Luciano
Aaron Miller
84%
16%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cleber Luciano
Aaron Miller
43
Sig strikes landed
42
92
Sig strikes attempted
98
59
Total strikes landed
58
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
173s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cleber Luciano
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Blue corner
Aaron Miller
"Blood Spiller"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"