Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joe Schilling
Rafael Carvalho
43%
57%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Schilling: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Carvalho: 37 sig / 4 TD
Joe Schilling
Rafael Carvalho
32
Sig strikes landed
48
77
Sig strikes attempted
90
43
Total strikes landed
47
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.50
3s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joe Schilling
3-5
Career record
Height
75"
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
Rafael Carvalho
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Age
29