Back to UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
Prelims1 Welterweight

Sergio Moraes vs Mickael Lebout

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 ·Tauron Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Sergio Moraes
Mickael Lebout
46% 54%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
W2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moraes: 51 sig / 2 TD · Lebout: 47 sig / 0 TD
Sergio Moraes
Mickael Lebout
28
Sig strikes landed
29
61
Sig strikes attempted
60
43
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Sergio Moraes

"The Panther"
15-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner

Mickael Lebout

"Ragnar"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28