Back to UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
Prelims1 Middleweight

Bartosz Fabinski vs Garreth McLellan

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 ·Tauron Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Bartosz Fabinski
Garreth McLellan
70% 30%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fabinski: 41 sig / 10 TD · McLellan: 13 sig / 0 TD
Bartosz Fabinski
Garreth McLellan
37
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
71
52
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Bartosz Fabinski

"The Butcher"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Garreth McLellan

"Soldier Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33