Prelims1
Welterweight
Seth Baczynski vs Leon Edwards
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
·Tauron Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Seth Baczynski
Leon Edwards
22%
78%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
34
Age
Δ 10y
24
20-15
Career record
Δ 19 pp
22-7
L2
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Baczynski: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Edwards: 3 sig / 0 TD
Seth Baczynski
Leon Edwards
24
Sig strikes landed
43
65
Sig strikes attempted
76
47
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
130s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Seth Baczynski
"The Polish Pistola"
20-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
Blue corner
L1
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—