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Prelims1 Featherweight

Edimilson Souza vs Katsunori Kikuno

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare ·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Edimilson Souza
Katsunori Kikuno
51% 49%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 8"
66"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
16-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
25-8-2
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Souza: 5 sig / 0 TD · Kikuno: 1 sig / 0 TD
Edimilson Souza
Katsunori Kikuno
38
Sig strikes landed
36
104
Sig strikes attempted
92
54
Total strikes landed
43
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
50s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Edimilson Souza

"Kevin"
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
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Blue corner
W1

Katsunori Kikuno

25-8-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
L UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—