Prelims1
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs Akbarh Arreola
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Akbarh Arreola
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
37
Age
Δ 4y
32
29-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
24-11-1
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Trinaldo: 39 sig / 3 TD ·
Arreola: 34 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Akbarh Arreola
26
Sig strikes landed
25
52
Sig strikes attempted
69
42
Total strikes landed
38
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
177s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Akbarh Arreola
"El Caballero"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—