Back to UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Main Women's Bantamweight

Amanda Nunes vs Shayna Baszler

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare ·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Amanda Nunes
Shayna Baszler
91% 9%
Why
27
Age
Δ 8y
35
23-6
Career record
Δ 24 pp
15-12
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nunes: 15 sig / 0 TD · Baszler: 1 sig / 0 TD
Amanda Nunes
Shayna Baszler
36
Sig strikes landed
10
65
Sig strikes attempted
37
65
Total strikes landed
31
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
201s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Amanda Nunes

"The Lioness"
23-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
Blue corner
L1

Shayna Baszler

"The Queen of Spades"
15-12
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—