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Gilbert Burns vs Alex Oliveira

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare ·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Alex Oliveira
58% 42%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Burns: 17 sig / 2 TD · Oliveira: 29 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Alex Oliveira
28
Sig strikes landed
31
77
Sig strikes attempted
75
48
Total strikes landed
40
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.5
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
260s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Gilbert Burns

"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
Blue corner

Alex Oliveira

"Cowboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27