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Leonardo Mafra vs Cain Carrizosa

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare ·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Leonardo Mafra
Cain Carrizosa
66% 34%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
13-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
10-4
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mafra: 94 sig / 5 TD · Carrizosa: 44 sig / 0 TD
Leonardo Mafra
Cain Carrizosa
43
Sig strikes landed
48
77
Sig strikes attempted
152
77
Total strikes landed
64
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Leonardo Mafra

"Macarrao"
13-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
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L UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
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Blue corner
L1

Cain Carrizosa

"The Insane"
10-4
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
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