Main
Welterweight
Erick Silva vs Josh Koscheck
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Erick Silva
Josh Koscheck
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
31
Age
Δ 7y
37
20-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-12
W1
Current streak
L4
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Silva: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Koscheck: 4 sig / 0 TD
Erick Silva
Josh Koscheck
27
Sig strikes landed
13
53
Sig strikes attempted
35
45
Total strikes landed
27
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
77s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
43%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Erick Silva
20-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
L4
Josh Koscheck
17-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—