Main
Welterweight
Demian Maia vs Ryan LaFlare
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Ryan LaFlare
62%
38%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
37
Age
Δ 6y
32
29-11
Career record
Δ 11 pp
15-3
W1
Current streak
W4
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Maia: 36 sig / 5 TD ·
LaFlare: 25 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Ryan LaFlare
37
Sig strikes landed
41
92
Sig strikes attempted
107
57
Total strikes landed
75
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
7.9
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
218s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
W4
Ryan LaFlare
15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—