Prelims1
Lightweight
Gray Maynard vs Alexander Yakovlev
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
·EagleBank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gray Maynard
Alexander Yakovlev
31%
69%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
13-8-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
24-11-1
L3
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maynard: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Yakovlev: 31 sig / 2 TD
Gray Maynard
Alexander Yakovlev
25
Sig strikes landed
40
57
Sig strikes attempted
80
45
Total strikes landed
55
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
149s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Gray Maynard
13-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
Blue corner
L2
Alexander Yakovlev
"Russian Thunder"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—