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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Timothy Johnson

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas ·EagleBank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Timothy Johnson
60% 40%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Abdurakhimov: 9 sig / 0 TD · Johnson: 22 sig / 1 TD
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Timothy Johnson
35
Sig strikes landed
33
68
Sig strikes attempted
68
52
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Shamil Abdurakhimov

"Abrek"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner

Timothy Johnson

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30