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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Liz Carmouche vs Lauren Murphy

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas ·EagleBank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Liz Carmouche
Lauren Murphy
52% 48%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
13-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-8
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carmouche: 38 sig / 2 TD · Murphy: 46 sig / 2 TD
Liz Carmouche
Lauren Murphy
36
Sig strikes landed
39
72
Sig strikes attempted
69
71
Total strikes landed
62
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
227s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Liz Carmouche

"Girlrilla"
13-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
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W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
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L UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
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Blue corner
L1

Lauren Murphy

"Lucky"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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