Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Diego Ferreira
80%
20%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
30-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Poirier: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Ferreira: 20 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Diego Ferreira
40
Sig strikes landed
30
82
Sig strikes attempted
72
53
Total strikes landed
42
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
Blue corner
L1
Diego Ferreira
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—