Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Robert Peralta
65%
35%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
38-23
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-9
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Guida: 27 sig / 6 TD ·
Peralta: 24 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Robert Peralta
31
Sig strikes landed
42
87
Sig strikes attempted
91
51
Total strikes landed
52
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
7.3
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
306s
Control time
21s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
Blue corner
L1
Robert Peralta
"Problems"
18-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—