Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Quinton Jackson
Fabio Maldonado
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
37
Age
Δ 2y
35
37-13
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-11
L3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jackson: 99 sig / 0 TD ·
Maldonado: 67 sig / 1 TD
Quinton Jackson
Fabio Maldonado
44
Sig strikes landed
54
104
Sig strikes attempted
107
55
Total strikes landed
73
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
108s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Quinton Jackson
"Rampage"
37-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
Blue corner
W1
Fabio Maldonado
"Caipira de Aco"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—