🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson vs Kyoji Horiguchi
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
·Bell Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Kyoji Horiguchi
42%
58%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
63"
29
Age
Δ 4y
24
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
37-5
W7
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 5
Johnson: 66 sig / 14 TD ·
Horiguchi: 31 sig / 1 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Kyoji Horiguchi
64
Sig strikes landed
48
132
Sig strikes attempted
122
108
Total strikes landed
74
3.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
7.3
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
234s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
Blue corner
W4
Kyoji Horiguchi
"Karate Kid"
37-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—