Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Alexis Davis vs Sarah Kaufman
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
·Bell Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alexis Davis
Sarah Kaufman
34%
66%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
21-12
Career record
Δ 19 pp
19-4
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Davis: 34 sig / 1 TD ·
Kaufman: 65 sig / 0 TD
Alexis Davis
Sarah Kaufman
48
Sig strikes landed
32
117
Sig strikes attempted
78
88
Total strikes landed
95
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
221s
Control time
243s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
6%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexis Davis
21-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Sarah Kaufman
19-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—