Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Patrick Cote
Joe Riggs
27%
73%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
35
Age
Δ 3y
33
23-12
Career record
Δ 5 pp
44-18
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cote: 21 sig / 3 TD ·
Riggs: 21 sig / 2 TD
Patrick Cote
Joe Riggs
21
Sig strikes landed
26
48
Sig strikes attempted
41
47
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
196s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
23-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Joe Riggs
"Diesel"
44-18
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—