Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yves Jabouin
Thomas Almeida
19%
81%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
36
Age
Δ 12y
24
21-11
Career record
Δ 17 pp
23-5
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jabouin: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Almeida: 31 sig / 0 TD
Yves Jabouin
Thomas Almeida
54
Sig strikes landed
41
114
Sig strikes attempted
96
69
Total strikes landed
92
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.60
164s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Yves Jabouin
"Tiger"
21-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
Blue corner
W1
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—