Prelims2
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Rakoczy vs Valerie Letourneau
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
·Bell Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jessica Rakoczy
Valerie Letourneau
22%
78%
Why
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
1-6
Career record
Δ 46 pp
9-6
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rakoczy: 46 sig / 1 TD ·
Letourneau: 38 sig / 2 TD
Jessica Rakoczy
Valerie Letourneau
66
Sig strikes landed
37
141
Sig strikes attempted
138
72
Total strikes landed
71
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
331s
Control time
202s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jessica Rakoczy
"The Ragin'"
1-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
W1
Valerie Letourneau
"Trouble"
9-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—