Prelims1
Lightweight
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs David Michaud
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
·Bell Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
David Michaud
51%
49%
Why
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
12-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
12-3
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Aubin-Mercier: 49 sig / 3 TD ·
Michaud: 17 sig / 0 TD
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
David Michaud
43
Sig strikes landed
48
95
Sig strikes attempted
102
66
Total strikes landed
70
1.2
Takedowns landed
2.1
4.1
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
147s
Control time
234s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
12-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
Blue corner
W1
David Michaud
"BullDawg"
12-3
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—