Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
LC Davis
Hideo Tokoro
82%
18%
Why
34
Age
Δ 3y
38
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Davis: 49 sig / 3 TD ·
Tokoro: 32 sig / 1 TD
LC Davis
Hideo Tokoro
36
Sig strikes landed
35
79
Sig strikes attempted
77
53
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
LC Davis
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
Blue corner
Hideo Tokoro
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38