Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Joe Warren
Marcos Galvao
48%
52%
Why
38
Age
Δ 5y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Warren: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Galvao: 13 sig / 1 TD
Joe Warren
Marcos Galvao
35
Sig strikes landed
40
74
Sig strikes attempted
84
48
Total strikes landed
55
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
154s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joe Warren
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
Blue corner
Marcos Galvao
"Loro"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34