Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Logan Nail
Neal Ewing
72%
28%
Why
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nail: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Ewing: 34 sig / 5 TD
Logan Nail
Neal Ewing
41
Sig strikes landed
42
98
Sig strikes attempted
98
52
Total strikes landed
82
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
121s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Logan Nail
0-0
Career record
Age
26
Blue corner
Neal Ewing
0-0
Career record
Age
30