Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean Holden
Tim Roman
84%
16%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holden: 36 sig / 5 TD ·
Roman: 9 sig / 1 TD
Sean Holden
Tim Roman
42
Sig strikes landed
41
96
Sig strikes attempted
97
61
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sean Holden
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
31
Blue corner
Tim Roman
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
30