Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rashad Coulter
Jeremiah O'Neal
96%
4%
Why
33
Age
Δ 4y
37
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Coulter: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
O'Neal: 2 sig / 0 TD
Rashad Coulter
Jeremiah O'Neal
58
Sig strikes landed
42
124
Sig strikes attempted
103
83
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rashad Coulter
"Daywalker"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Jeremiah O'Neal
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
37