Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ryan Couture
Dakota Cochrane
50%
50%
Why
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Couture: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Cochrane: 9 sig / 1 TD
Ryan Couture
Dakota Cochrane
42
Sig strikes landed
45
103
Sig strikes attempted
110
59
Total strikes landed
64
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
129s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ryan Couture
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Dakota Cochrane
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
29