Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Bessette
Josh LaBerge
89%
11%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Bessette: 68 sig / 1 TD ·
LaBerge: 22 sig / 0 TD
Matt Bessette
Josh LaBerge
45
Sig strikes landed
39
104
Sig strikes attempted
97
64
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Bessette
"The Mangler"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Josh LaBerge
0-0
Career record
Height
70"