Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Mangan
Dean Hancock
71%
29%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mangan: 3 sig / 2 TD ·
Hancock: 7 sig / 0 TD
Michael Mangan
Dean Hancock
39
Sig strikes landed
39
94
Sig strikes attempted
95
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
127s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Michael Mangan
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Dean Hancock
"The Hammer"
0-0
Career record