Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Diekmann
Raphael Butler
72%
28%
Why
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Diekmann: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Butler: 5 sig / 0 TD
Josh Diekmann
Raphael Butler
36
Sig strikes landed
46
90
Sig strikes attempted
104
56
Total strikes landed
63
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
187s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Diekmann
"The Freight Train"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Age
38
Blue corner
Raphael Butler
"The Silencer"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Age
31