Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neiman Gracie
Bobby Flynn
74%
26%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gracie: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Flynn: 1 sig / 0 TD
Neiman Gracie
Bobby Flynn
44
Sig strikes landed
42
106
Sig strikes attempted
100
83
Total strikes landed
56
1.5
Takedowns landed
3.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Neiman Gracie
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Blue corner
Bobby Flynn
0-0
Career record