Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marvin Maldonado
Blair Tugman
68%
32%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maldonado: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Tugman: 52 sig / 4 TD
Marvin Maldonado
Blair Tugman
40
Sig strikes landed
40
90
Sig strikes attempted
95
49
Total strikes landed
53
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
139s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marvin Maldonado
"The Bulldog"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Blue corner
Blair Tugman
0-0
Career record
Height
72"