Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brennan Ward
Curtis Millender
72%
28%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ward: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Millender: 4 sig / 0 TD
Brennan Ward
Curtis Millender
43
Sig strikes landed
51
98
Sig strikes attempted
115
62
Total strikes landed
66
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brennan Ward
"The Irish Bad Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Age
27
Blue corner
Curtis Millender
"Curtious"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27