Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Art Arciniega
Emilio Chavez
85%
15%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arciniega: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Chavez: 41 sig / 3 TD
Art Arciniega
Emilio Chavez
42
Sig strikes landed
43
96
Sig strikes attempted
99
55
Total strikes landed
55
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Art Arciniega
"King Arthur"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
33
Blue corner
Emilio Chavez
0-0
Career record
Height
69"