Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mason Fowler
Marko Damiani
84%
16%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mason Fowler
Marko Damiani
38
Sig strikes landed
39
92
Sig strikes attempted
94
74
Total strikes landed
50
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
168s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mason Fowler
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Blue corner
Marko Damiani
0-0
Career record
Height
72"