Lightweight
Jonathan Contrestano vs Ryan Tobar
Bellator 133: Manhoef vs. Shlemenko
·Save Mart Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jonathan Contrestano
Ryan Tobar
87%
13%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Jonathan Contrestano
Ryan Tobar
42
Sig strikes landed
41
101
Sig strikes attempted
98
82
Total strikes landed
50
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jonathan Contrestano
"JT"
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Ryan Tobar
0-0
Career record