Light Heavyweight
John Paul Elias vs Cody Sons
Bellator 133: Manhoef vs. Shlemenko
·Save Mart Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Paul Elias
Cody Sons
86%
14%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
John Paul Elias
Cody Sons
39
Sig strikes landed
31
92
Sig strikes attempted
93
49
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
John Paul Elias
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Blue corner
Cody Sons
0-0
Career record
Height
69"