Welterweight
Nick Bustamante vs Louis Jauregui
Bellator 133: Manhoef vs. Shlemenko
·Save Mart Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Bustamante
Louis Jauregui
78%
22%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nick Bustamante
Louis Jauregui
42
Sig strikes landed
41
101
Sig strikes attempted
95
58
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
137s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Bustamante
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Blue corner
Louis Jauregui
0-0
Career record
Height
67"