Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Pat Curran
Daniel Weichel
51%
49%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Curran: 61 sig / 1 TD ·
Weichel: 57 sig / 1 TD
Pat Curran
Daniel Weichel
41
Sig strikes landed
41
97
Sig strikes attempted
100
55
Total strikes landed
56
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Pat Curran
"Paddy Mike"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
28
Blue corner
Daniel Weichel
"The Weasel"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Age
30