Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Max Holloway
42%
58%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 8y
23
31-15
Career record
Δ 8 pp
28-9
L1
Current streak
W5
8
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Swanson: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Holloway: 82 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
Max Holloway
53
Sig strikes landed
76
132
Sig strikes attempted
174
56
Total strikes landed
82
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
18s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W5
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—