Main
Women's Strawweight
Felice Herrig vs Paige VanZant
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Felice Herrig
Paige VanZant
39%
61%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
31
Age
Δ 10y
21
15-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
9-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Herrig: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
VanZant: 67 sig / 2 TD
Felice Herrig
Paige VanZant
27
Sig strikes landed
24
62
Sig strikes attempted
59
50
Total strikes landed
49
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.00
255s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
65%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
15-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W1
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
9-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—