Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Chris Camozzi
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
27-10
Career record
Δ 10 pp
24-14
W4
Current streak
L4
4
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Souza: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Camozzi: 7 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Chris Camozzi
35
Sig strikes landed
36
74
Sig strikes attempted
72
60
Total strikes landed
56
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
243s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
L4
Chris Camozzi
24-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—