Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Ovince Saint Preux vs Patrick Cummins
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ovince Saint Preux
Patrick Cummins
70%
30%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
28-18
Career record
Δ 0 pp
11-7
W1
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Saint Preux: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Cummins: 14 sig / 1 TD
Ovince Saint Preux
Patrick Cummins
24
Sig strikes landed
18
48
Sig strikes attempted
40
44
Total strikes landed
37
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
102s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ovince Saint Preux
28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
Blue corner
W3
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
11-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—